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UniCredit Expecting A 100bps Hike Next Week

HUNGARY
  • UniCredit expects the NBH to take the policy rate to 5.40%, delivering another 1pp rate hike in its attempt to bring the repo rate close to the 1W deposit rate (currently at 6.15%).
  • UniCredit expects inflation to exceed 11% in June due to rising food prices and the potential removal of some price caps after parliamentary elections.
  • Supply shocks and resilient domestic demand could keep inflation in double digits this year, with insufficient disinflation in 2023 to avoid another target miss.
  • As a result, UniCredit expects the NBH to raise interest rates further, taking the policy rate to 6% and the 1W deposit rate to 7% in an attempt to limit HUF depreciation.
  • More rate hikes may be needed if inflation rises more than expected and proves to be more resilient.
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