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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 25 Apr-1 May

All timings subject to change.

Monday 25 April:

  • India-EU: Raisina Dialogue geopolitics and geo-economics conference gets underway in New Delhi. PM Narendra Modi will be in attendance alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The Commission president will deliver the opening address as the Dialogue, the first since January 2020. The event is set out as a major forum for talks between Indian politicians/officials and business, political, and military leaders from the West and Western-aligned nations.
  • United States: Senate returns for Washington, D.C. after a two-week break, with the House returning on Tuesday. Major focuses this week include the stalled USD10bn COVID-19 aid package, the White House’s request for Congressional approval for USD800mn in additional aid for Ukraine, and a Democrat-led social spending package aimed at replacing some of the funding lost after the failure of the Build Back Better plan. At 1500ET the Senate takes up the nomination of Lael Brainard as Federal Reserve Vice-Chair.
  • UK-India: British and Indian officials begin the third round of talks over a free trade agreement in a hybrid in-person/virtual format. In the second round of FTA talks in March the two sides shared a draft treaty text. The third round of talks comes after UK PM Boris Johnson visited India last week for talks with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. Johnson talked up the prospect of a deal being reached by October, although Modi was more circumspect mentioning ‘year-end’.
  • Turkey-LatAm: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu holds talks with his Brazilian counterpart Carlos Franca in Brasilia. The Turkish and Brazilian governments have proved unlikely allies in recent years, with their respective populist presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Jair Bolsonaro offering mutual support when coming in for criticism from liberal governments. Cavusoglu then goes on to complete a broad Latin American trip, visiting Uruguay, Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, and Venezuela.
  • Canada:Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem appears before the House of Commons finance committee at 1100ET (1600BST, 1700CET).
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