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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
BRAZIL
The latest hypothetical second-round run-off opinion poll ahead of the October presidential election shows incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro gaining on presumptive left-wing Workers' Party (PT) candidate, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
- FSB poll: Second round: Lula (PT): 58% (-3), Bolsonaro (PL): 42% (+3). (+/- vs. 18-20 March 2022). Fieldwork: 22-24 April 2022. Sample size: 2,000
- Lula confirmed his intention to run for a third term as president last week, announcing his selection of centre-right former Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate in an attempt to burnish his moderate credentials.
- Betting markets continue to have Lula as the strong favourite to take the presidency from populist Bolsonaro, who in recent months has sought to try to eat into Lula's support base among poorer working class Brazilians in the north east of the country with the promise of infrastructure projects and welfare handouts. Betting markets give Lula a 62.5% implied probability of winning, compared to 32.3% for Bolsonaro.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Brazilian Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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