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Carry-Over Pushback on 75Bp Hike; Demand Shock on China Zero Covid

US TSYS

Rate futures trading higher after the bell - well off midday highs that saw 30YY hit 2.8552 low (2.8936% last), yield curves flatter in the short end (2s10s -3.133 at 19.388) as bonds managed to outpace the strong front end bid (2YY slipped to 2.5209 low, 2.6236% last)

  • Carry-over short end support after Cleveland Fed Pres Mester pushed back on any need to hike more than 50bp late last Friday -- odds of 75bp hikes evaporating on the day. No comment from Fed with speakers in blackout through the May 4 FOMC.
  • Underlying support trigger: Market putting more weight on the demand hit rather than the inflationary pressure from further supply side disruptions on widespread Covid lockdowns prospects in China (panic selling: Shanghai CSI 300 -4.15% to 3851.80, Hang Seng -3.86% to 19809.0).
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 5.2bps at 2.6152%, 5-Yr is down 9.1bps at 2.84%, 10-Yr is down 9.4bps at 2.8044%, and 30-Yr is down 6.9bps at 2.8756%.
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