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RUB Gains Another 2.42% vs the Greenback, Supporting the Case for CBR Rate Cuts

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB maintained its downside momentum in yesterday’s session, falling -2.42% to consolidate the move below the 80 handle and 200dma.
  • RUB diverged the trend of USD gains and softer oil markets yesterday with brent closing -4.06% lower after a brief test of the $100/bbl level.
  • RUB strength further supports the case for an easing of the key rate on Friday and some capital controls, with markets coalescing around a -200bp rate cut to 15.00%.
  • The expectation is that the CBR will direct its focus towards offsetting risks to growth, while being slightly more tolerant of inflationary pressures.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.7174, Sup2: 73.0921, Res1: 76.8271, Res2: 78.07
  • Blasts reported yesterday afternoon in Moldova’s Transnistria region are a concern to monitor, should Putin choose to expand Russia’s military operation in the name of stopping the persecution of Russian speakers.
  • Additionally, the meeting with UNSG Guterres is unlikely to yield significant results with talks mostly stalled at this juncture.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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