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Goldman Sachs See 75bps NBP Hike, in Line With Consensus

POLAND
  • Goldman Sachs expect the NBP to deliver a 75bp rate hike to +6.00% , alongside consensus. They write that while the NBP delivered a dovish surprise in the last MPC meeting by hiking rates by less-than-expected, NBP's Glapinski downplayed the dovish implications of the decision, and instead guided that the tightening cycle will continue.
  • GS add that there is little to date in inflation and activity data to suggest that the hawkish backdrop is likely to fade in the near-term. They do expect that rising cost-of-living pressures and policy tightening will have a moderating effect on activity and demand, but the NBP nevertheless will need to maintain a relatively hawkish stance before this becomes more apparent in the data.
  • GS conclude that recent PLN strength is unlikely to change inflation dynamics in the near-term, but will nevertheless be welcomed by policymakers. They forecast rates rising to 7.00% this year.
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