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UniCredit: Expects a Below-Consensus 50bps NBP Hike

POLAND
  • UniCredit expect a 50bps rate rise from the NBP this week against consensus for a 75bps hike.
  • They do note that the NBP could raise rates by 75bps, but state that recent data points towards economic activity slowing compared to Q1 and, therefore, the NBP could slow the pace of hiking.
  • They note that Poland's cyclical core prices are rising fastest in Central Europe and three times faster than the inflation target, in annualized terms. As such, recent comments from the NBH, suggesting that it might continue hiking above 7%, could force the NBP to do the same.
  • UniCredit keep their forecast of 7% as a terminal rate, pending a reassessment of inflationary pressure in the NBP’s July inflation report.

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