MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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2024 Budget Drivers vs Prior Estimates

GERMANY

The budget committee of the German parliament yesterday passed a 2024 draft budget, setting planned net borrowing at E39.0bln (+E22.5bln compared to earlier drafts from mid-October and +E11.6bln compared to 2023).

  • MNI estimates the net announced borrowing figures to amount broadly to 0.8-1.0% of 2024 nominal GDP, higher than the 0.35% debt brake allowance. However, higher net borrowing is permissible due to the allowance for the business cycle adjustment.
  • Tax income is projected at E377.6bln (+E2.3bln vs mid-Oct draft and +E21.5bln vs 2023), with the increase vs prior draft driven by the higher-than-planned raise of the CO2-price (govt. estimate +E1.3bln), the part removal of the tax concessions for agricultural diesel (MNI estimate +E180mln) and changes to air transport levies/taxes (govt. estimate of up to +E650mln).
  • Other revenues (incl. budget reserve withdrawals) are projected at E60.2bln (+E6.4bln vs mid-Oct draft and -E14.2bln vs 2023), with the increase vs prior draft driven by higher reserve withdrawals, the refinancing of the EU-plastics levy (govt. estimate +E1.4bln), and higher-than-expected fees from the "Wind Energy at Sea Act" (govt. estimate +E780mln).
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