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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- BoC-dated OIS currently has around 20bp of cuts priced for next week and a cumulative 27bp for Sept, reinforcing what we currently see as an “either/or” rather than “and” decision re July and September cut prospects.
- 3M CORRA futures are underperforming their SOFR counterparts ahead of CPI. They still see 63bp of cuts through 2024 contracts (vs 45bps pre US and Canadian jobs reports on Jul 5), and 150bp of cuts by end-2025.
- We feel that consensus readings for headline and core CPI should give the BoC sufficient confidence to cut for a second consecutive meeting in July considering the further weakening seen in the labour market (the unemployment rate has increased to 6.4% vs 6.1% prior to its June meeting). However, details within the report will clearly matter and could leave the July decision somewhat more evenly balanced.
- Final re-upping of the MNI Canadian CPI Preview: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65237/CanadaCPIPrevJul2024.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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