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29 Sep Could Be Election Day-Kurier

AUSTRIA

Austria's Kurier reporting that the federal election could take place on 29 Sep following comments from Agriculture Minister Norbert Totschnig. Speaking on ORF's political Hoes Haus programme, Totschnig - from the centre-right People's Party (OVP) - stated that he wanted to reach an agreement with the junior coalition partner Greens on an animal protection law "before the election on September 29th”.

  • The election day has not yet been formally set by the relevante parliamentary committee.
  • Opinion polling shows the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party (FPO) on course for a plurality of seats for the first time. The decision of incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer's OVP is likely to prove crucial post-election, whether it decides to act as a junior partner to an FPO-led right-wing gov't or seeks a more centrist coalition alongside the centre-left Social Democrats and possibly the environmentalist Greens or liberal NEOS.
  • An FPO-led gov't would further entrench the right-wing lean of a number of EU gov'ts with conservative or nationalist gov'ts coming to power in Finland, Italy, and potentially Netherlands in recent months/years.
  • The stance of Austria's gov't also holds as wider impact due to its promiment position among the 'frugals' at the EU level, generally opposed to greater EU spending, more lenient fiscal rules, or deeper fiscal integration between the member states.
Chart 1. Austria Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Market-Lazarsfeld, OGM, Market, INSA, Unique Research, Peter Hajek, MNI

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Austria's Kurier reporting that the federal election could take place on 29 Sep following comments from Agriculture Minister Norbert Totschnig. Speaking on ORF's political Hoes Haus programme, Totschnig - from the centre-right People's Party (OVP) - stated that he wanted to reach an agreement with the junior coalition partner Greens on an animal protection law "before the election on September 29th”.

  • The election day has not yet been formally set by the relevante parliamentary committee.
  • Opinion polling shows the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party (FPO) on course for a plurality of seats for the first time. The decision of incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer's OVP is likely to prove crucial post-election, whether it decides to act as a junior partner to an FPO-led right-wing gov't or seeks a more centrist coalition alongside the centre-left Social Democrats and possibly the environmentalist Greens or liberal NEOS.
  • An FPO-led gov't would further entrench the right-wing lean of a number of EU gov'ts with conservative or nationalist gov'ts coming to power in Finland, Italy, and potentially Netherlands in recent months/years.
  • The stance of Austria's gov't also holds as wider impact due to its promiment position among the 'frugals' at the EU level, generally opposed to greater EU spending, more lenient fiscal rules, or deeper fiscal integration between the member states.
Chart 1. Austria Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Market-Lazarsfeld, OGM, Market, INSA, Unique Research, Peter Hajek, MNI