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5-Star Movement's Popularity Slumps After Di Maio Defection

ITALY

Opinion polling shows support for the populist 5-Star Movement (M5S) hitting a multi-year low with pollster Noto following the defection of Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio to set up a new centrist party.

  • Noto poll: Brothers of Italy (FdI): 22% (-0.5), Democratic Party (PD): 21% (+2), Lega: 14% (-1), M5S: 10% (-1.5), Forza Italia (FI): 8%, Action/More Europe (A/+E): 5.5%, Italia Viva (IV): 3.5%, Together for the Future (IpF): 3% (new), Italexit: 2.5% +/- vs. 12 June 2022, Fieldwork: 27 Jun. Sample size: 1,000
  • The right-wing populist Lega of former Deputy PM Matteo Salvini records support of 14%, a multi-year low for the party, while the centre-left PD records its highest level of support in a Noto poll since 2020 with 21%.
  • Ahead of the next general election, likely in June 2023, the M5S will have to decide whether to contest the election as a separate entity.
  • Alternatively it could do as some leftist observers are suggesting and fight in coalition with the PD in an effort to deny the centre-right coalition of the Brothers of Italy, Lega, and Forza Italia a majority (as polls currently suggest they will).
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