MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 19

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Disappointing data but no market reaction

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50bp Of ’24 BoE Cuts Priced Into SONIA, U.S. Inflation Data Eyed

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA futures are flat to -2.0, with Bunds back from highs.

  • BoE-dated OIS is unchanged, showing ~13bp of cuts through August and ~50bp of easing through year end.
  • U.S. inflation data will likely dominate into the weekend, with PPI and UoM readings due. The former will allow analysts to fine tune their PCE projections following yesterday’s soft CPI release.
  • Further out, Wednesday’s UK CPI release provides the next point of note on the domestic data calendar.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.070-13.0
Sep-244.981-21.9
Nov-244.810-39.0
Dec-244.704-49.6
Feb-254.551-64.9
Mar-254.448-75.2
May-254.311-88.9
Jun-254.217-98.3
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SONIA futures are flat to -2.0, with Bunds back from highs.

  • BoE-dated OIS is unchanged, showing ~13bp of cuts through August and ~50bp of easing through year end.
  • U.S. inflation data will likely dominate into the weekend, with PPI and UoM readings due. The former will allow analysts to fine tune their PCE projections following yesterday’s soft CPI release.
  • Further out, Wednesday’s UK CPI release provides the next point of note on the domestic data calendar.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.070-13.0
Sep-244.981-21.9
Nov-244.810-39.0
Dec-244.704-49.6
Feb-254.551-64.9
Mar-254.448-75.2
May-254.311-88.9
Jun-254.217-98.3