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ECB minutes in focus


Bullish Focus


(F3) Bear Threat Still Present


E-MINI S&P (Z2): Trend Needle Points North


Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat

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  • Implied hikes have continued to gain through Asia hours after yesterday’s CPI surge.
  • 92.5bp prices for July, 167bps for Sep and 212bps for Dec with the peak now being pulled into that meeting at 3.71% before almost 70bps of cuts priced to end-2023.
  • Speaking late yesterday: Mester (’22 voter) said the CPI report was uniformly bad. The Fed doesn’t have to make a decision today (in response to when questioned on a 100bp hike potential), tightening has to be very deliberate and intentional, expecting to go well beyond neutral with no choice but to get inflation back under control. Daly (’24 voter) sees a 75bp hike this month as the most likely posture with 100bp in the range of possibilities.
  • Only Gov. Waller scheduled today at 1100ET to talk on the economic outlook but plenty of potential for pop-up speakers with the media blackout starting midnight Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

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