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A$ Back Above 0.6600, Lower US Yields/NZD Bounce Help, AU Retail Sales Due Today

AUD

AUD/USD was dragged higher late in NY/early Asia Pac trade, as NZD spiked on hawkish comments from RBNZ Chief Economist Conway. AUD/USD got to 0.6616, not too far off Jan 24 highs just above 0.6620. We sit slightly lower in latest dealings, close to 0.6610. This leaves AUD a little over 0.50% firmer for Monday's session, only bettered by NZD in the G10 space.

  • Much like NZD, we aren't too far away from important resistance levels for AUD/USD. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6627, with the 20-day also very close to this level (0.6630). Still, the broader technical backdrop remains bearish for now.
  • Cross asset sentiment for AUD was positive in Monday trade from a yield standpoint, with US Tsy yields lower across the board as the US lowered its Q1 borrowing estimate. Equity sentiment was higher in US markets.
  • AUD/EUR broke above 0.6100, as EUR underperformed. Early Jan highs come in around 0.6200 for the pair.
  • Commodity indices were lower, as oil prices fell. Iron ore is down a touch, last near $135/ton, but copper was higher.
  • On the data front today we have Dec retail sales. The market looks for pay back from the Nov bounce (fueled by sales). The consensus is for a -1.7% drop, +2.0% was prior.
  • In the option expiry space, note the following for NY cut later: 0.6640 (276mln).

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