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A Continuation Of Faster Than Expected Disinflation Despite Stronger Growth

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • There will be far more detail in the upcoming FOMC preview but the below three charts summarize how PCE inflation has continued to moderate at a faster than expected pace despite GDP growth coming in far stronger -- click open file to see more clearly.
  • The Fed has recently been more accurate with its unemployment rate forecast (having first looked for 3.8% for 4Q23 in its Sept SEP) but it too forecast a rise to 4.5% back in its March SEP vs the 3.8% it ended up averaging in 4Q23.

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