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A Little Firmer & Flatter Early On

GILTS
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Gilts initially rally as they adjust to Monday’s late move higher in U.S. Tsys, but the uptick is contained and fades a little. That leaves futures +15 at 98.64, within Monday’s range.

  • The bullish technical picture for the contract remains intact. Initial resistance seen at 99.25, while initial support comes in at 98.21.
  • Cash gilt yields are 1-2bp lower, light flattening seen.
  • Both 2s10s and 5s30s have moved away from recent highs early this week.
  • GBP STIRs still little changed. ~47bp of ’24 cuts are priced.
  • The latest Sunak-Starmer debate took place last night but won’t be a market mover, given the lack of fresh information & Labour’s wide lead opinion poll lead.
  • The UK data calendar is empty today.
  • The DMO will sell GBP1.5bn of the 0.75% Nov-33 I/L gilt this morning.
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Gilts initially rally as they adjust to Monday’s late move higher in U.S. Tsys, but the uptick is contained and fades a little. That leaves futures +15 at 98.64, within Monday’s range.

  • The bullish technical picture for the contract remains intact. Initial resistance seen at 99.25, while initial support comes in at 98.21.
  • Cash gilt yields are 1-2bp lower, light flattening seen.
  • Both 2s10s and 5s30s have moved away from recent highs early this week.
  • GBP STIRs still little changed. ~47bp of ’24 cuts are priced.
  • The latest Sunak-Starmer debate took place last night but won’t be a market mover, given the lack of fresh information & Labour’s wide lead opinion poll lead.
  • The UK data calendar is empty today.
  • The DMO will sell GBP1.5bn of the 0.75% Nov-33 I/L gilt this morning.