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A Little Richer Still After Borrowing Estimates Rally

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have pulled back off best levels with the aid of stronger than expected Spanish CPI and Italian GDP growth, but still trade 0.5-2bp richer. It still sees yields consolidate/push a little lower from yesterday’s late rally on lower-than-expected Treasury marketable borrowing estimates, limiting upside issuance risks for Wednesday’s refunding announcement.
  • TYH4 at 111-21 has pulled back from a high of 111-27+ amongst strong volumes of almost 400k. Yesterday’s price action saw clearance of the 20-day EMA with next resistance seen at 112-01+ (Jan 17 high) as short-term gains are still considered corrective from a technical perspective.
  • JOLTS probably headlines today’s data whilst US earnings are in full swing with Pfizer and Starbucks still to come pre-market, before more notably Alphabet and Microsoft after the close. Any surprises will be met with an eye of tomorrow’s FOMC decision, refunding announcement and important data including the Employment Cost Index.
  • Data: FHFA House Prices Nov (0900ET), S&P CoreLogic House Prices Nov (0900ET), Conf Board consumer survey Jan (1000ET), JOLTS labor data Dec (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Jan (1030ET)
  • Bills issuance: US Tsy $80B 42D CMB bill auction (1130ET)
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