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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Analyst consensus sees AHE growth of 0.2% M/M in February but there is huge uncertainty here.
- Primary dealer analyst estimates for AHE this month range from 0.0% to 0.4% M/M (with SMBC Nikko Securities a further outlier with -0.1% M/M). A further upside surprise here, with the median analyst looking for a 0.2% M/M increase, would raise expectations of an acceleration in broader wage metrics in Q1.
- January saw average hourly earnings growth surprisingly surge to 0.55% M/M as hours worked slumped to 34.1 to break the pattern of oscillating between 34.3-34.4 since Mar’23, and excluding Mar’20 it was last lower in mid-2010.
- The general narrative is that this was heavily influenced by bad weather, which didn’t materially impact the payrolls data owing to how they’re calculated through the reference week but weighed on average hours worked over the week. That in turn boosted the average hourly wage for salaried employees. The extent to which this is corrected in February, and possibly revised away in the original January data, will have a heavy bearing on the market reaction.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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