A Presidential Runoff Is Looking Less Likely

Indonesians go to the polls in less than a week to choose a new President, House of Representatives, the Senate and local legislative councils. Until recently it looked like there would be a runoff in June as no one looked likely to win 50% but all of the last three opinion polls show defence minister Prabowo with over 50% support. It is now looking a lot closer that he will be the next President without a runoff vote.

• The four polls taken since mid-January have support for Prabowo between 48.7% and 52.9% (latest survey). All have Anies in second place with an average 22.3% followed by Ganjar from the incumbent PDI-P on 19.9%. If Anies and Ganjar join forces, then there is a chance that Prabowo won’t win a runoff.
• There has been some controversy surrounding the election after there was dispensation for the age of current President Jokowi’s son Gibran to run as Prabowo’s VP. Under Indonesian law he was too young. Also Gibran is running with a candidate who is not from his father’s PDI-P, which has upset people in the President’s party and cabinet. Although Jokowi has not formally endorsed any candidate, it is assumed that he is behind Gibran. Because of the controversy, the President has said he won’t campaign this weekend. Prabowo has said he will continue Jokowi’s economic policies but that remains to be seen.
• Political uncertainty weighed on the rupiah with USDIDR rising almost 2% from mid-January to its high on January 26. BI intervention has helped to bring it down and it has fallen in recent days and is now 1.3% below that late January peak. Cabinet stability despite rumours the finance minister might resign has helped the currency marginally.