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A$ Rebounds On JPY Intervention, PMIs ON Tap Today

AUD

AUD/USD saw nearly a 100pip round trip from lows of 0.6574 to around 0.6670, post yen intervention. We have settled back at 0.6640/45 for now. The data calendar contains preliminary PMI readings for September.

  • The technical focus remains on downside levels. Beyond the overnight low of 0.6574, we have several lows from late May 2020, 0.6568 and 0.6538 respectively. Beyond that is 0.6464, a 61.8% retracement of the 2020-2021 up leg. Topside resistance could be expected at 0.6682 (July 14 low).
  • AUD/JPY currently sits at 94.55. We saw a brief dip through the 100 day MA overnight (93.79), while on the topside note the 50 day MA comes in at 94.97. Pre-intervention highs were close to 96.50.
  • The A$ fared better against the rest of the G10, particularly CHF. AUD/CHF is back to 0.6490, unable to sustain gains beyond 0.6500 though.
  • In the cross asset space, AU-US spreads continue to move against the A$. The 10yr spread is at risk of sub 0bps levels, although AU yields should play some catch up to the topside today.
  • Commodities were softer, although metals traded resiliently. Iron ore edged back up to $99/tonne.
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