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A Small Improvement In Consumer Sentiment

US DATA
  • U.Mich consumer sentiment beat expectations in the August preliminary as it bounced from 51.5 to 55.1 (cons 52.5) in a further modest recovery from June’s series low of 50. It remains below the 2008 low of 56.4.
  • The recovery is led by expectations jumping +7.6pts to 54.9 to offset weaker current conditions falling -2.6pts to 55.5, with both just off recent lows.
  • The press release notes: “All components of the expectations index improved this month, particularly among low and middle income consumers, whilst the share of consumers blaming inflation for eroding their living standards remained near 48%.”
  • 1Y-ahead inflation was softer than expected, falling from 5.2% to 5.0% (cons 5.1%), whilst on the flipside the 5-10Y surprisingly increased from 2.9% to 3.0% (cons 2.8%) to be closer to its recent average and showing little of the latest decline in the separate NY Fed 3Y ahead measure. As mentioned earlier, treat with some caution after recent revisions with the final release.

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