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A Tight Session For GBP STIRs

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Little net movement in BoE-dated OIS and SONIA futures on the day.

  • SONIA futures are +0.5 to -1.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows ~13bp of cuts through the June MPC and ~56bp of easing through year end.
  • UK headline flow remains light, with a recovery in crude oil futures perhaps limiting any upticks in core global FI markets.
  • The latest domestic labour market report will be released tomorrow.
  • However, as we have noted on several occasions, last week’s MPC meeting de-emphasised labour market data somewhat (with services CPI taking on even more importance and PMI data on costs/output prices becoming increasingly meaningful).
  • Elsewhere, BoE chief economist Pill will speak on Tuesday, but he has already appeared post-MPC. Furthermore, his appearance at the Chartered Accountants Economic Summit has no text scheduled, so it is unlikely to be a speech where he changes his tone.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.068-13.2
Aug-244.941-25.9
Sep-244.852-34.8
Nov-244.727-47.3
Dec-244.639-56.1
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Little net movement in BoE-dated OIS and SONIA futures on the day.

  • SONIA futures are +0.5 to -1.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows ~13bp of cuts through the June MPC and ~56bp of easing through year end.
  • UK headline flow remains light, with a recovery in crude oil futures perhaps limiting any upticks in core global FI markets.
  • The latest domestic labour market report will be released tomorrow.
  • However, as we have noted on several occasions, last week’s MPC meeting de-emphasised labour market data somewhat (with services CPI taking on even more importance and PMI data on costs/output prices becoming increasingly meaningful).
  • Elsewhere, BoE chief economist Pill will speak on Tuesday, but he has already appeared post-MPC. Furthermore, his appearance at the Chartered Accountants Economic Summit has no text scheduled, so it is unlikely to be a speech where he changes his tone.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.068-13.2
Aug-244.941-25.9
Sep-244.852-34.8
Nov-244.727-47.3
Dec-244.639-56.1