A Tight Session For GBP STIRs

Little net movement in BoE-dated OIS and SONIA futures on the day.

• SONIA futures are +0.5 to -1.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows ~13bp of cuts through the June MPC and ~56bp of easing through year end.
• UK headline flow remains light, with a recovery in crude oil futures perhaps limiting any upticks in core global FI markets.
• The latest domestic labour market report will be released tomorrow.
• However, as we have noted on several occasions, last week’s MPC meeting de-emphasised labour market data somewhat (with services CPI taking on even more importance and PMI data on costs/output prices becoming increasingly meaningful).
• Elsewhere, BoE chief economist Pill will speak on Tuesday, but he has already appeared post-MPC. Furthermore, his appearance at the Chartered Accountants Economic Summit has no text scheduled, so it is unlikely to be a speech where he changes his tone.