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A Touch Firmer Amid Little Headline Flow; Peripheries Tighten

EGBS

Core/semi-core EGBs are a touch firmer to start the week, after recovering from a slight dip seen going into the cash open.

  • Macro headline flow has been light thus far, as have volumes owing to today's President's Day holiday in the US (cash Tsys markets are closed).
  • Bunds are +7 ticks at 133.03, having traded in a tight 29 tick range. Well-defined technical parameters contain price action, with the Feb 16 low at 132.71 the first support and the 20-day EMA at 134.21 still the first resistance.
  • The German and French cash curves have lightly twist steepened, pivoting around the 20-year point.
  • 10-year periphery spreads to Bunds are up to 2bps tighter this morning, with the BTP/Bund spread still trading below 150bps, currently -1.7bps tighter at 146.6bps. We flagged earlier a less arduous EGB issuance slate to digest from Thursday through into the end of next week together with decent backflows would be supportive for spread tightening in the second half of the week, all else equal.
  • Today's regional docket is light, with tomorrow's ECB negotiated wage data presenting the most immediate scheduled risk event of note.
  • Later this week, we also receive flash February PMIs and final January HICP (both Thursday).

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