TRUDEAU SAYS TARIFFS WILL BE PAUSED FOR AT LEAST 30 DAYS

MNI BRIEF: US Treasury Lowers Q1 Borrowing Estimate By $9B

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bostic In Wait And See Mode On Rates

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Collins Expects Tariffs To Raise Prices

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Supports Slowing Rate Cuts

MNI BRIEF: US Dec Core PCE Inflation In Line With Expectations

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium, ESM Auction on Tuesday

MNI: US DEC CONSTRUCT SPENDING +0.5%

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BONDS: ACGBs Track Tsys Curves Steeper, RBA's Hunter Spoke Earlier

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Aussie bonds are largely tracking moves made overnight in US tsys, with the majority of the curve now trading about 15-20bps cheaper over the past two sessions. There was nothing on the local data calendar today, however the RBA's Sarah Hunter did speak.

  • RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted the central bank's focus on labor market and inflation trends, indicating policy adjustments might be needed if the unemployment rate and core inflation deviate from expectations. Despite Governor Michele Bullock's recent dovish tone, a surprising drop in unemployment to 3.9% complicates the outlook, with rates potentially staying at 4.35% for longer. Markets are now split, with swaps pricing the first rate cut in May, while currency traders anticipate an earlier easing.
  • ACGBs yields are off early morning highs, however are still trading 2.5bps to 5bps cheaper over the session. The 2yr is +2.8bps at 3.907%, after hitting lows of 3.76% post RBA on Tuesday, while the 10yr is +4.1bps at 4.302% vs weekly lows of 4.138%.
  • ACGB futures are currently YM -2.6 & XM -4.2
  • Swap curves have twist-flattened and are trading -8 to -1bps, with the short-end underperforming.
  • Bills strip is trading -2 to -7
  • RBA-date OIS pricing is steady today, however has cooled slightly over the week with Feb now pricing 12bps of cuts, from 14bps on Monday. There was 27bps of cuts priced in for the April meeting at the start of the week, and we last trade at 23bps of cuts, with the first full cut now price in for May, while the market has just 70bps of cuts priced out through to November 2025.
  • Next week there is little on the calendar as we head into Christmas, with just Westpac Consumer Confidence of note.
282 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Aussie bonds are largely tracking moves made overnight in US tsys, with the majority of the curve now trading about 15-20bps cheaper over the past two sessions. There was nothing on the local data calendar today, however the RBA's Sarah Hunter did speak.

  • RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted the central bank's focus on labor market and inflation trends, indicating policy adjustments might be needed if the unemployment rate and core inflation deviate from expectations. Despite Governor Michele Bullock's recent dovish tone, a surprising drop in unemployment to 3.9% complicates the outlook, with rates potentially staying at 4.35% for longer. Markets are now split, with swaps pricing the first rate cut in May, while currency traders anticipate an earlier easing.
  • ACGBs yields are off early morning highs, however are still trading 2.5bps to 5bps cheaper over the session. The 2yr is +2.8bps at 3.907%, after hitting lows of 3.76% post RBA on Tuesday, while the 10yr is +4.1bps at 4.302% vs weekly lows of 4.138%.
  • ACGB futures are currently YM -2.6 & XM -4.2
  • Swap curves have twist-flattened and are trading -8 to -1bps, with the short-end underperforming.
  • Bills strip is trading -2 to -7
  • RBA-date OIS pricing is steady today, however has cooled slightly over the week with Feb now pricing 12bps of cuts, from 14bps on Monday. There was 27bps of cuts priced in for the April meeting at the start of the week, and we last trade at 23bps of cuts, with the first full cut now price in for May, while the market has just 70bps of cuts priced out through to November 2025.
  • Next week there is little on the calendar as we head into Christmas, with just Westpac Consumer Confidence of note.