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Activity data due tomorrow at 7:00GMT

  • Tomorrow will see the ONS release monthly activity data for September and the first print of Q3 GDP.
  • The Bank of England’s November MPR forecasts see a flat Q3 GDP print (-0.02%Q/Q) while the Bloomberg consensus sees a -0.1%Q/Q print (with two-way risks).
  • The monthly GDP print is also expected to fall by -0.1%M/M in September, albeit with upside risks with each of the main components (services, IP, construction) all expected to show small falls.
  • Note that tomorrow's release will also see the recent Blue Book changes incorporated into monthly GDP (so the entire series will change - in line with some of the recent changes that we have seen in the quarterly series).
  • Activity data has been taking on increasing importance for the MPC as they view it as a way to assess impact of the passthrough of previous rate hikes.
  • Outside of the UK release, tomorrow morning will also see Scandi data and Italian industrial production while later in the day we will receive the Michigan survey in the US where inflation expectations will be closely watched in particular.
  • Given the lack of other large market moving events early in the day, there could be a decent move in UK markets on the back of the activity data. The MNI Markets team also expects that a disappointing print is likely to have more impact on FX, SONIA and gilt markets than a higher-than-expected print.

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