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Actual USD/CNY Fixing Holds Close to 7.1100

CNH

The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.1088, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.1583.

  • This was another downside surprise, -495pips for today in USD/CNY terms. Yesterday's outcome was-468pips, so not too dissimilar. For the past week, cumulative downside surprises have been -2149pips. Towards the end of September this metric troughed just ahead of -4000pips.
  • The actual fixing isn't deviating too far from 7.1100. For this run higher in USD/CNH, the highest fix print has been 7.1107 (recorded Sep 28).
  • We may need to see a move above this level to signal comfort with further depreciation pressures, although a lot depends on broader USD trends.
  • USD/CNH is up from session lows, last at 7.1870, in line with USD strength against the majors. The fixing hasn't generated a reaction in USD/CNH.
  • Coming up shortly is September inflation data.

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