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All Eyes On RBNZ

NZD

Participants shied away from riskier currencies, but the greenback lost its safe haven allure, to the benefit of JPY and CHF. Risk aversion applied selling pressure to NZD/USD into the London morning, but the rate clawed back virtually all earlier losses, charting a dragonfly Doji candlestick.

  • The RBNZ will announce its monetary policy decision at 14:00 NZST, with Governor Orr's press conference coming up an hour later.
  • Most analysts call for the second consecutive 50bp rate rise as the RBNZ needs to contain runaway inflation. Click here to see our preview of today's decision.
  • The OIS strip prices a 94% chance of a 50bp hike to the OCR today, with 18 out of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting such an outcome.
  • Note that the NZD/USD implied overnight volatility rose to a two-week high of 23.91% on Tuesday before easing somewhat; it has picked up this morning and last sits at 19.97%.
  • Spot NZD/USD trades at $0.6463, down 5 pips on the day. Should the rate descend past May 18 low of $0.6291, bears could set their sights on May 12 low of $0.6217. Conversely, the initial bullish target is provided by May 5 high of $0.6568.
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