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MNI RBNZ Preview - May 2022: Another 50bp Hike Lies In Store

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Latest CPI and jobs market data reinforce the case for continued monetary policy tightening, with headline inflation hitting three-decade highs and the unemployment rate holding at a record low.
  • Retreating property market may provide a source of worry for the RBNZ, but we think it is unlikely to discourage policymakers from delivering another double-barrel rate rise.
  • Back in April, the Monetary Policy Committee described its decision as a "stitch in time," suggesting that front-loading the withdrawal of stimulus is justified in the current environment.
  • Updated forecasts will receive scrutiny, particularly the closely watched OCR track. Any fresh comments on the Reserve Bank's view on the neutral level of the OCR will also provide interest.

Click here to see the full preview: MNI RBNZ Preview May 2022.pdf

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