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AMLO Announces Constitutional Reform Proposals, Citibanamex Survey Due

MEXICO
  • AMLO announced a range of constitutional reform proposals to Congress yesterday in a move that could weaken the opposition in the run up to the June presidential election. The reforms include changes to the pension system, amendments to minimum wages, changes to the judicial system and reducing the size of the country’s congress. Many of the proposals may fail to pass, as constitutional amendments require a 2/3 approval in Congress. However, Itau note that even not approving the reforms is likely to cost the opposition parties in the election, supporting the ruling party’s candidate, Sheinbaum.
  • Turning to today, Citibanamex will release its survey of economists with forecasts for inflation, GDP growth and the interest rate outlook. The survey comes ahead of Banxico’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday, when the policy rate is likely to be left unchanged again, but many analysts are looking for a change in the forward guidance that opens the door to a potential move in March.
  • HSBC think clearer progress in core inflation since December and a high real rate should pave the way for a guidance tweak to prepare for a 25bp cut in March. Deutsche Bank also continue to see space for policy normalisation with subsiding demand pressures paving the way for a possible start of the easing cycle next month.
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