August 15, 2022 17:32 GMT
- The Bloomberg analyst survey saw a continued wide range amongst analysts of views on the potential BoC rate path.
- Coming ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report, it’s almost a coin toss between those calling for a 50bp or 75bp hike at the Sep 7 meeting, with 75bps to 3.25% just edging it (9 of 17).
- The median response sees a terminal rate of 3.5% in Q4 in line with current market pricing although sees it being held slightly longer through to mid-2023 before cuts in 2H23 with a median split between 3-3.25% for end’23.
- Goldman is the most hawkish with a terminal 4.25% until at least after the Oct’23 meeting, whilst Oxford Economics and UBS are relatively dovish with a hiking cycle stopping at 3% with next month’s BOC decision – see table below.