Free Trial
NATURAL GAS

Poland Sanctions Gazprom Export

OIL

US Set to Sanction Iranian Oil Exports

BONDS

Further upside traction

SILVER TECHS

Still Looking For Weakness Near-Term

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Analyst BoC Rate Paths Ahead Of CPI

CANADA
  • The Bloomberg analyst survey saw a continued wide range amongst analysts of views on the potential BoC rate path.
  • Coming ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report, it’s almost a coin toss between those calling for a 50bp or 75bp hike at the Sep 7 meeting, with 75bps to 3.25% just edging it (9 of 17).
  • The median response sees a terminal rate of 3.5% in Q4 in line with current market pricing although sees it being held slightly longer through to mid-2023 before cuts in 2H23 with a median split between 3-3.25% for end’23.
  • Goldman is the most hawkish with a terminal 4.25% until at least after the Oct’23 meeting, whilst Oxford Economics and UBS are relatively dovish with a hiking cycle stopping at 3% with next month’s BOC decision – see table below.

132 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.
  • The Bloomberg analyst survey saw a continued wide range amongst analysts of views on the potential BoC rate path.
  • Coming ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report, it’s almost a coin toss between those calling for a 50bp or 75bp hike at the Sep 7 meeting, with 75bps to 3.25% just edging it (9 of 17).
  • The median response sees a terminal rate of 3.5% in Q4 in line with current market pricing although sees it being held slightly longer through to mid-2023 before cuts in 2H23 with a median split between 3-3.25% for end’23.
  • Goldman is the most hawkish with a terminal 4.25% until at least after the Oct’23 meeting, whilst Oxford Economics and UBS are relatively dovish with a hiking cycle stopping at 3% with next month’s BOC decision – see table below.