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Analyst Takeaways From The BoC’s First Minutes

CANADA
  • BMO: The BoC’s inaugural minutes leaned dovish, as it revealed policymakers considered pausing in January before continued economic resilience prompted a 25bp hike. The risk for policy remains skewed to more hikes through the 1H23, at which point the risks likely start to turn the other way assuming inflation is well-behaved.
  • JPM: The minutes leaned dovish in our view. Indeed they note that the bar for additional hikes was now higher despite the premise of a “conditional pause.” Signaling an abundance of patience, future decisions to tighten will be based on a accumulation of evidence.
  • CIBC: There were no big surprises, the essence of which had already been covered in the MPR press conference and Tuesday’s speech. The summary makes clear that the bar for further rate hikes is now higher, consistent with our view that they will now stay on hold.
  • TD: Short on drama and long on consensus. Probably the most interesting nugget involved the three conclusions: 1) The bar for additional rate increases was now higher, 2) they would need an accumulation of evidence to determine if further hikes were needed, and 3) it was important to stress the conditionality of any pause. All three of those were either evident in the January text or fairly straightforward inferences.
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