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Analyst Views Following Suspected MoF Intervention

JPY
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  • The Bank of Japan’s decision to downplay the yen’s impact on inflation last Friday prompted a further sharp weakening of the currency. This culminated in USDJPY breaching the 160.00 handle overnight, amid thin liquidity due to the Japanese holiday. This took the rally from Friday’s lows to over 500 pips, printing a fresh cycle high of 160.17, which closely matched the April 1990 peak.
  • However, the subsequent aggressive move lower has somewhat justified the market’s cautious rhetoric in recent weeks, with strong indications that the MOF may have intervened to stabilise the JPY. There has been no official confirmation on intervention from Japanese authorities, with top currency official Kanda stating he has ‘no comment for now’, and later adding that if any FX interventions were made, markets would be made aware at the end of May.
  • Attached below are a selection of the latest views on the Japanese Yen from sell-side analysts, with the majority taken after today’s volatile price swings:

    • JPY - Analyst Views.pdf


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  • The Bank of Japan’s decision to downplay the yen’s impact on inflation last Friday prompted a further sharp weakening of the currency. This culminated in USDJPY breaching the 160.00 handle overnight, amid thin liquidity due to the Japanese holiday. This took the rally from Friday’s lows to over 500 pips, printing a fresh cycle high of 160.17, which closely matched the April 1990 peak.
  • However, the subsequent aggressive move lower has somewhat justified the market’s cautious rhetoric in recent weeks, with strong indications that the MOF may have intervened to stabilise the JPY. There has been no official confirmation on intervention from Japanese authorities, with top currency official Kanda stating he has ‘no comment for now’, and later adding that if any FX interventions were made, markets would be made aware at the end of May.
  • Attached below are a selection of the latest views on the Japanese Yen from sell-side analysts, with the majority taken after today’s volatile price swings:

    • JPY - Analyst Views.pdf