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Analyst Views On January Inflation Data

COLOMBIA
  • Goldman Sachs: The policy-relevant core services inflation—excluding regulated items—firmed to 1.0%, although on an annual basis it is finally now tracking below the 9% handle at which it had remained since April last year. All measures of core inflation (ex-food, ex-food & energy, all services) are declining slowly, and are still tracking visibly above target. Overall, the data raises the likelihood of a potential acceleration in the pace of cuts to 50bp at the March MPC meeting as signalled by the Board.
  • JPMorgan maintain their central scenario of annual headline CPI easing ahead converging to 5.2 %oya. Forecast uncertainty remains elevated, particularly for food and electricity prices on El Niño. JPM’s projection is maintained below the recent revision of the Staff. They also maintain the policy rate converging to 8.5% by December, and 6.25% for terminal level.
  • Itaú: Softening domestic demand, favourable FX dynamics and base effects are expected to consolidate the downward inflation trend. However, inflationary pressures stemming from “El Niño” phenomenon, the minimum wage increase and future adjustments of diesel prices could slow the disinflationary process.
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