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Analyst Views on Mexico GDP, HSBC Downgrade Growth Forecasts

MEXICO
  • Following yesterday’s lower-than-expected annual growth data, HSBC have noted that while some sectors will likely remain resilient, the growth profile has become more uneven due to external and domestic factors. As a result, HSBC have revise their 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts down to 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, from 2.7% and 2.5%. Still, the long-term picture is still good, thanks in part to nearshoring trends, providing a harder growth floor.
  • JPMorgan said the flash 1Q GDP print was indeed weak, but not as weak as expected. For some time JPM argued that they did not think momentum was as weak as the data was implying and that a host of other indicators (surveys, employment, wages, balance sheets) suggested that activity should bounce back.
  • Itaú have noted their GDP growth forecast of 2.8% for 2024 has a downward bias given a soft 1Q24. However, they note that the soft 1Q24 GDP was mainly due to the weak monthly GDP print in January, while the February activity figure expanded at a strong pace , and March is likely to expand further. The rebound of activity, also considering strong fiscal spending, increases the odds of Banxico keeping its policy rate unchanged at 11.00% in the May 9 monetary policy meeting.
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