MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Analyst Views On Tomorrow's BCRP Decision

PERU
  • A few more BCRP analyst previews. A full document will go out tomorrow.
  • *Scotiabank: Peru's central bank is expected to remain on hold again at 7.75%. It's premature to court easing expectations especially after March CPI at 1.25% m/m NSA was one of the hottest months of March over the past couple of decades.
  • *Citi: Expect an unchanged decision. BCRP paused their hiking cycle in January after signaling they were close to the end for a while. Although inflation posted a monthly increase in March, the yearly headline declined, suggesting that inflation has peaked and should start decreasing in upcoming prints, which supports Citi’s call for stable rates for now. BCRP should start cutting in 2H23.
  • *Deutsche Bank: Expect BCRP on hold at 7.75%. While inflation is coming down, the m/m print during March was not only higher than expected but also significantly above the historical print for the month. While seemingly driven exclusively by poultry prices and even though several indexes relevant to company costs such as wholesale prices and construction materials show a declining inflation trend, Deutsche expect the BCRP to adopt a cautious stance due not only to the potential disruption of inflation expectations of the recent inflation surprise but also due to the heightened uncertainty regarding global growth prospects.
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