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Analysts At Either End Of Employment Spectrum

CANADA
  • TD offer one of the weaker views here, with -12k for employment and a u/e rate of 5.2%. They see some mean reversion from the current trend plus unseasonably cold weather weighing.
  • However, domestic economic data are seen taking a backseat with the April BOC seen comfortably on hold and negative data momentum in the US far more important.
  • Scotia meanwhile look for a 40k increase and the u/e rate falling to that joint low of 4.9%, although pointing to the statistical noise with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 57k. They cite from activity in accommodation and food services categories whilst flight data also remained above pre-pandemic norms.

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