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Analysts Expect First Banxico Rate Cut In March

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso is trading flat early on Wednesday, after rallying yesterday to leave USDMXN over 1% below its peak earlier this week and close to initial support levels. The near-term focus remains on tomorrow’s January CPI inflation data and Banxico policy meeting, where most analysts expect the overnight rate to remain unchanged, with only a few seeing the chance of a 25bp cut. Attention will be on the forward guidance, with market participants looking for any change that opens the door to a possible move in March.
  • The full MNI Banxico preview with analyst views is here.
  • Yesterday, the latest Citibanamex survey showed that analysts expect the next interest rate move to be a 25bp cut in March. Analysts also raised their 2024 year-end policy rate forecast to 9.50%, from 9.25%, while the 2024 year-end inflation forecast was increased slightly to 4.08%, from 4.00%.
  • Data wise, Banxico will publish international reserves for the week ended Feb. 2 at 1500GMT(1000ET). Reserves rose to $212.9b the previous week. January consumer confidence and vehicle production and exports data will also cross at 1200GMT.
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