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Analysts' Expectations Range Mixed On 10-30Y Coupon Sizes (3/3)

US TSYS/SUPPLY

Looking through sell-side analysts' estimates for Wednesday's coupon announcements, they are largely in line with MNI's in the previous table, with some outliers mainly to the downside in terms of sizes.

  • The most debatable segments are in 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y.
  • We would caveat these by noting that all of the forecasts we have seen were made before the Treasury's marketable borrowing requirements announcement so these may have changed. However it shouldn't have made a significant difference to the overall consensus.

Sell-side expectations ranges for the Nov issuance month are:

  • 2Y ranges from +$2B to $53B (a small minority), to $3B to $54B (consensus)
  • 3Y +$2B to $48B (firm/unanimous consensus)
  • 5Y ranges from +$2B to $54B (a small minority), to +$3B to $55B (consensus)
  • 7Y +$1B to $39B (firm/unanimous consensus)
  • 10Y ranges from +$2B to $40B, to +$3B to $41B (very mixed)
  • 20Y ranges from unchanged at $16B, to +$1B to $17B (very mixed)
  • 30Y ranges from +$1B to $24B, to $2B to $25B (very mixed)
We will include individual analysts' expectations in our Refunding Preview.
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