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Analysts Indicate Limited Upside For PLN

  • Goldman Sachs noted that while the Polish Zloty traded better at the start of last week, it came under pressure again following the NBP’s decision to leave rates unchanged (against expectations) and adopt a wait-and-see approach. As GS have previously indicated, this reluctance to tighten more aggressively amid rising inflation (which their economists expect to only peak next year) remains currency negative.
  • Santander BP economists have said the zloty's appreciation potential remains "strongly limited" by geopolitical factors and rising risk of recession in Europe, which are not offset by potential further interest rate hikes. On top of global factors, zloty is underperforming regional peers due to local challenges such as lack of means from the recovery plan.

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