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Market News Topics
January 15, 2024 19:22 GMT
Analysts On BoC Business and Consumer Surveys
CANADA
- BMO: “The BoC surveys paint a mixed picture, with activity remaining soft overall, but some very tentative potential signs that we could be nearing a bottoming. However, inflation expectations remain stubbornly high, declining only ever so slightly. While the direction is encouraging, and will likely continue to be as the economy remains weak, we'll need to see inflation expectations move down further before policymakers are willing to cut rates.”
- Desjardins: “Consumers are curtailing spending and businesses, seeing falling sales, are tapping the brakes on hiring. This is consistent with the way in which tighter monetary policy is believed to work. With the BoC’s medicine now clearly working as intended, central bankers are likely to sound more dovish later this month when they hold rates steady for a fourth consecutive time. The market has moved to price in most of the policy easing we have been forecasting for this year. We see the BoC beginning a rate cutting cycle in April, taking the policy rate down to 3.50% by the end of 2024.”
- RBC: “The BoC has been watching firm pricing and wage growth closely for signs that recent slowing inflation will persist - and both measures continued to trend (albeit slowly) back towards 'normal' levels. That for the most part confirms the cautiously optimistic view among BoC officials that interest rates are high enough for now. Inflation readings are still too firm to justify immediate rate cuts from the central bank, but we look for a softer economic backdrop and further easing in price pressures will push the BoC to pivot to gradual rate cuts by mid-year.”
- TD: “It is also becoming more apparent that the gap between consumers' perception of inflation and actual price changes is creating a real communication challenge for the BoC as it prepares to step on the path of rate cuts. According to the consumer survey, persistently high expectations for inflation for services such as rent may be slowing progress in returning overall inflation expectations to a historic norm. As we noted in our recent report, the BoC should shift its public messaging to highlight that housing expenses are not the sole determinants of Canada’s wider inflation patterns. Failing to make this distinction risks curtailing economic growth by too much.”
To read the full story
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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