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Analysts On Retail Sale Implications For GDP

CANADA
  • BMO: Along with weakness in housing, we see real GDP on track for a slight decline in May (reported next week following StatCan’s -0.2% initial estimate). But these months that just passed are not the real issue at the moment—rather, it’s how the economy holds up to much tighter monetary policy in the second half of the year.
  • CIBC: The slowdown in sales volumes in May, combined with a likely drop in June, suggests that consumption is shifting away from goods and towards services, while rate hikes are containing demand in interest-sensitive areas, along with the erosion in purchasing power. That will help to trim the excesses in goods sectors ahead, which have been amplifying prices due to low inventory levels. We still expect a 0.2% drop in May GDP.
  • Scotia: The relatively weak volumes leave our GDP nowcast for 2Q22 at +3.59% Q/Q SAAR, with poor momentum going into Q3.
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