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Analysts On Retail Sales Report

CANADA
  • BMO: The soft run of February data, outside the job market, spread into the retail space, but our current Q1 growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.5% annualized.
  • CIBC: The economy as a whole has performed better than expected recently, but the sluggishness in ex-auto retail spending volumes is a sign that higher interest rates are indeed having an impact on consumer spending decisions, despite household excess levels of savings. CIBC still see the BoC on hold this year before gradual cuts start early in 2024.
  • However, Scotia: Canadian retailers had a strong Q1 overall but momentum waned over Feb-Mar which bakes in a potential reversal in Q2. Data quality is even more suspect than usual and sends a chilling caution ahead of more important macroeconomic reports on the path to the June BoC. When combined with a possible rotation to services spending not captured here, we should be very careful about drawing overly hasty conclusions on the state of the Canadian consumer.
  • TD: Contrary to the pronounced decline in the March advance, our internal high-frequency data points to a moderate gain in total spending and that puts our tracking for consumer spending slightly above 4% annualized in Q1.
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