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Analysts Raise 2021 CPI Forecast To 7.66%, Oct. Retail Sales Due

MEXICO
  • Citi published results of biweekly analysts’ survey in email. For reference, the results are the median forecast of about 30 analysts.
    • Next rate move to be 50 bps increase in Feb. 2022
    • Analysts Raise 2021 CPI Est. to 7.66% Vs. 7.30%
    • 2022 year-end inflation raised to 4.16% from 4.00%
    • 2021 GDP cut to 5.60% from 5.70%
    • 2022 GDP cut to 2.80% from 2.90%
    • 2022 year-end rate raised to 6.63% from 6.25%
  • Retail sales likely rose 6% in October from a year earlier after growth of 5.9% in September. The result implies a small month-on-month advance and is in line with fewer lockdowns. Retail sales remain below their pre-pandemic level.
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. Retail Sales M/m, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. Retail Sales Y/y, est. 6%, prior 5.9%
  • Aside from the usual daily press conference from President AMLO, tomorrow’s release of bi-weekly CPI data will be the last focus for domestic markets before the holiday season.
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