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Free AccessAnalysts See Core PCE Run Rates Slowing Closer To Target In August
Updating some further analyst post-PPI estimates for core PCE, due on Sep 29.
- GS see core PCE at 0.14% M/M for 3.81% Y/Y, and headline at 0.39% M/M for 3.40% Y/Y.
- JPM see core PCE at 0.11% M/M.
- MS see core PCE at 0.14% M/M and headline at 0.38% M/M.
- If accurate the average 0.13% M/M for core PCE in August would mark a moderation from the 0.22% in July and 0.21% in June, for its lowest since the single month surprise 0.08% of Jul’22 and before that late 2020.
- More importantly, the relatively more sustained nature compared to last July means it would leave the 3-month average annualized rate at 2.3%, closing in on the 2% target and down from the 5% annualized in Q1 and 3.3% in Q2.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.