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Analysts See Core PCE Run Rates Slowing Closer To Target In August

US DATA

Updating some further analyst post-PPI estimates for core PCE, due on Sep 29.

  • GS see core PCE at 0.14% M/M for 3.81% Y/Y, and headline at 0.39% M/M for 3.40% Y/Y.
  • JPM see core PCE at 0.11% M/M.
  • MS see core PCE at 0.14% M/M and headline at 0.38% M/M.
  • If accurate the average 0.13% M/M for core PCE in August would mark a moderation from the 0.22% in July and 0.21% in June, for its lowest since the single month surprise 0.08% of Jul’22 and before that late 2020.
  • More importantly, the relatively more sustained nature compared to last July means it would leave the 3-month average annualized rate at 2.3%, closing in on the 2% target and down from the 5% annualized in Q1 and 3.3% in Q2.

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