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Analysts See Recovery In Economic Indicators In Oct After Weak Q3

CANADA
  • BMO: Retail sales fell in September; though the drop was smaller in volume terms, real spending took a notable step back in Q3, with the biggest decline since 2008 (excluding the pandemic).
  • However, solid advance estimates for retail, wholesale and mfg sales point to a recovery in October.
  • CIBC: The advance estimates for October retail, wholesale and mfg suggest that Q4 has started with a little more momentum than we previously anticipated, with some upside pressure on ours and the BoC’s GDP forecast (+0.5% annualized) for Q4.
  • However, it is early days, and the impact of past interest rate hikes on consumer spending will only grow in the coming months and quarters.
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  • BMO: Retail sales fell in September; though the drop was smaller in volume terms, real spending took a notable step back in Q3, with the biggest decline since 2008 (excluding the pandemic).
  • However, solid advance estimates for retail, wholesale and mfg sales point to a recovery in October.
  • CIBC: The advance estimates for October retail, wholesale and mfg suggest that Q4 has started with a little more momentum than we previously anticipated, with some upside pressure on ours and the BoC’s GDP forecast (+0.5% annualized) for Q4.
  • However, it is early days, and the impact of past interest rate hikes on consumer spending will only grow in the coming months and quarters.