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Analysts Unconvinced By Market BoC Pricing

CANADA
  • Bloomberg’s analyst survey, published yesterday and collected over Aug 11-16, shows that only CIBC calls for a 25bp hike at the Sep 6 decision and it’s only joined by JPM for those looking for a hike by year-end (although GS have previously been in that October hike camp but aren't included in this latest survey).
  • That’s in contrast to BoC-dated CORRA OIS pricing circa 10bps for the Sep decision and building to a cumulative 23bp by year-end.
  • Further out, the median analyst sees the first rate cut coming with the April decision followed by 25bp cuts per meeting thereafter, for the most part.

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