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Annual Headline Inflation Accelerates, But Core Continues To Soften

PORTUGAL

Portugal's flash August HICP and CPI printed at 5.3% Y/Y and 3.73% respectively, an increase from the July prints of 4.3% Y/Y for HICP and 3.07% for CPI.

  • Monthly readings returned to inflationary territory, with HICP printing at 0.8% M/M (vs -0.4% prior) and CPI at 0.33% M/M (vs -0.36% prior).
  • The acceleration in headline was driven by fuel prices, with energy inflation in August -6.51% Y/Y (vs -14.92% prior). Unprocessed foods continued disinflating at 6.47% Y/Y (vs 6.82% prior).
  • Meanwhile Core CPI (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) fell 0.2pp to 4.48% Y/Y (from 4.67% prior) - the slowest rate since March 2022.
  • The sequential deceleration in core eased to -0.15% M/M from -0.89% in July, but this was the 3rd M/M decline in 4 months, suggesting a fairly constant disinflationary impulse, even as headline price inflation remains elevated.

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