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Another Marked Difference In Credit Tightening vs US Firms

CANADA DATA
  • We earlier went into the details behind today’s BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q3 (see here) and how there was another deviation between tighter business vs modestly easier household lending conditions.
  • Lending conditions to Canadian businesses tightened by the most since the pandemic but it’s again notable just how much less the degree of tightening for Canadian businesses has been relative to their US counterparts.
  • Canadian and US business lending conditions used to tighten and ease by broadly the same extent over business cycles, but this has relationship faded during and since the pandemic.
  • Without the limited degree of tightening relative to the US, there could have been an even wider gulf between GDP growth in Q3, with Canada GDP seemingly on track for a second small contraction vs the booming 4.9% in the US (at least under current data vintages).

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