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Another Round Of Diplomacy As Tensions Increase

US-RUSSIA
  • US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is in Ukraine today. The visit is intended ‘…to reinforce the United States' commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.’ Blinken’s trip to Ukraine comes amid another diplomatic blitz to resolve the Ukraine crisis.
  • Blinken will fly to Berlin later today, or early tomorrow, to meet with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and representatives of the ‘Transatlantic Quad’ (US, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom).
  • Blinken will then meet with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on Friday. Baerbrock herself has been in Moscow this week delivering an unexpectedly firm German position to Lavrov.
  • The US State Department is hopeful that the diplomatic talks can provide a de-escalation but the threat of war remains high and movement of military hardware has ramped up this week. In particular, eastern divisions of the Russian military are being prepped for mobilisation to war games in Belarus.
  • The status of Nordstream 2 as a deterrent is currently unclear. The soon to be completed Gazprom gas pipeline has been opposed by US throughout the project. They believe it hands control of Europe’s energy supply to Moscow. Sanctions on the pipeline were vetoed by President Joe Biden last year and another bill to impose sanctions, introduced by Senator Ted Cruz, failed to pass the Senate last week.
  • The official line from the White House is that the threat of sanctions on the pipeline must be available to the US and Western allies in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • An alternate bill to impose highly punitive sanctions on Russia and Putin’s inner circle from Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) was placed on the Senate’s legislative calendar yesterday and is expected to pass the Senate with bipartisan support.
  • Germany remains a key variable in the response to Russian aggression. Germany operated a pragmatic position towards Russia and the Nordstream 2 pipeline throughout the Chancellorship of Angela Merkel and there appears to be continuity on that position in the current Administration of Olaf Scholtz. Nordstream 2 would deliver increased energy security to Germany, and it appears that the current position of Germany is that blocking Nordstream 2 may be on the cards in the event of an outright Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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USEM BulletHomepagePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskEmerging Market NewsPolitical Risk BulletBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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