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Another Upside Housing Surprise Questions Inflation Impetus From Lower Rents

US DATA
  • Both FHFA and CoreLogic 20-city house price indexes came in stronger than expected in March at 0.6% M/M (cons 0.2) and 0.45% M/M (cons 0.0), confirming strength in the earlier Freddie Mac series.
  • It followed a downward revised -0.1% M/M for CoreLogic but for the FHFA, it followed another notably strong 0.7% in February after hardly any house price correction following a 40% increase since the pandemic. For the FHFA this follows another notably strong 0.7% in February after hardly any house price correction following a 40% increase since the pandemic.
  • Along with the apparent move off lows in home sale activity, it could increasingly start to question prior expectations that CPI/PCE housing inflation metrics will soften as lower rental inflation feeds through.
  • Recall the following from Gov. Waller last week: “A second concern is rent increases, which accounts for most of a category called housing services and is a sizable component of inflation. Lower rent increases from lease renewals last year are slowly making their way into the inflation data, but most recently, a rebound in the housing market is raising questions about how sustained those lower rent increases will be. While housing prices actually have less of a short-term effect on rents than one might think, this upturn in the housing market, which comes even with significantly higher mortgage rates, has raised questions about whether the benefit from the slowing in rent increases will last as long as we have been expecting.”

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